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Publication:投资者报  Source:和讯网  2009/07/15 15:31:00

 

　　据近日媒体报道,一些大型国有钢厂的干部认为,现在铁矿石进口的乱局的根源是国内钢企的恶性竞争,而恶性竞争是因为政府撤销了冶金部,取而代之的中钢协缺乏管理力度,是钢铁业的国退民进、民营钢厂的崛起带来了现在的混乱局面。

　　这番话的潜台词就是应该恢复钢铁业的政府管理,还像冶金部时代一样,冶金部是中国所有国有钢厂的老板,各个国有钢厂划定势力范围,互不攻击,各自保持相对垄断,将民企彻底挡在钢铁行业之外。

　　由此而衍生出来的论点就是,就是如果只有少数几家国企有资格进口铁矿石,自然不会像现在这样混乱。

　　这样的思维已经在管理部门中出现了,近日中钢协主管的中国钢铁新闻网在头条位置发布一条消息称,中国正在重新审核铁矿石进口许可证,可能会取消20家左右企业的资质,其中大部分是贸易商。

　　按照中钢协的一贯思路,进口企业数量越少,越集中于国有钢铁生产企业,铁矿石谈判越容易,就能够更有力的向三大矿山压价,就没有了众多大小钢厂和贸易商们被各个击破的放水之忧。

　　我们认为,这种逻辑是十分混乱而且危险的,在此之前,我们曾经反复表达过一个观点,正是因为铁矿石进口许可证制度造成了进口权垄断,才造成铁矿石价格双轨制,才造成了大钢厂倒矿谋求暴利,进而刺激国内矿价不断上涨的怪圈。

　　现在,我们可以用实际的例子来说明,政府的管制不但不会降低进口矿价,而且还有可能会推高矿价。

　　中钢协如果试图减少进口企业数量,那么最终减少到一到两家就应该不能再少了,比如只剩下宝钢和鞍钢,其他任何企业和个人都没有权利谈判和进口铁矿石,那么这个局面够理想的了吧,矿价会降吗?

　　中国的大宗资源商品进口,除了铁矿石还是石油和钾肥。

　　中国目前主要由两大石油公司垄断原油和成品油的进口渠道,而现在北京、上海的汽油零售价格比美国还贵,中国的石油进口没有出现像铁矿石这样的混乱局面,但垄断成本却来了,消费者还是没有享受到实惠。

　　另一个和铁矿石进口更为相像的领域是钾肥进口,目前钾肥进口权完全垄断在中化和中农两家手里,其中中化占绝对大的比重,虽然只有两家进口,但其混乱程度却堪比铁矿石进口。

　　据相关媒体报道,2007年,中化集团每进口一吨钾肥倒手卖给国内化肥生产企业的纯利润至少1000元人民币,由此使得中国9亿农民每人为此多付出10元人民币的耕种成本。而业内人士分析,现在的情况可能更为糟糕,中化的暴利空间更大。

　　进口权垄断导致了中化中农的暴利和下游化肥生产厂家的强烈不满,年年谈判还没有开始,内部就吵翻了天,众多拿不到进口权的民营企业和相关协会组织纷纷上书国务院,在获得国务院领导的批示后,钾肥的进口垄断问题仍然难以打开。更让人难以理解的是,在国际钾肥市场过剩的大背景下,中国进口钾肥价格却逐年走高,一年一度的钾肥进口权谈判成为了国外矿业巨头和国内垄断巨头的双簧戏,很多人怀疑,钾肥进口领域甚至有内外勾结、抬高矿价,进而牟取暴利的可能。

　　中钢协若坚持削减铁矿石进口企业的数量,则中国钢铁业极有可能成为第二个中国钾肥行业。无数事实已经证明,只要有价格双轨制和垄断存在,就会滋生腐败和市场混乱。这次中国钢铁行业不惜借力拓事件爆出家丑,由此以行业整顿为名维护垄断利益,其用心可谓良苦。

　　可能有人会说,铁矿石和钾肥不一样,钾肥的问题再于中化和中农要独享进口权益,而铁矿石谈判若只有宝钢和鞍钢参加,谈下来的价格,大家一起分享。这种可能性现在看来很小,中国的钢铁行业集中度很低,十几家大型国有钢厂互不服气,都是市场竞争对手,共享低价权益谈何容易。

　　就算中钢协所有会员都能享受到谈判下来的低价矿,哪些没有资格加入中钢协的中小民营企业怎么办。在很多苛刻的产业政策下,很多正规的民营钢铁企业也被挡在了门外,比如钢铁产业政策规定新建高炉必须1000立方米以上,这是一个连专家都看不懂的规定,因为300立方米、400立方米等容积的高炉无论从环保和能耗上都不输于1000立方米的大高炉,很多中小民营企业很难有资金上这样的大炉子,由此就成为了要被淘汰的落后产能,肯不能享受宝钢谈判铁矿石的果实。而这些小钢厂是地方的支柱产业,有地方政府的支持,恐怕再有100年也淘汰不了,他们也要进口铁矿石,大钢厂见利就倒卖,还是会有两种矿价,进而演进成国企和民企的利益冲突,特权与市场的摩擦,成为钾肥进口一样的乱局。

　　现在的中国,没有任何一个行业像钢铁行业那样,集中展现了国企、外企与民企的身份不认同和强烈的利益冲突,今年两会期间,一位大型国有钢铁企业老总公开表示,民营企业不适合搞钢铁行业;前两年的两会期间,另一位大型国有钢铁的老总呼吁抵制外资钢铁的并购,现在,外资并购已经被钢铁产业政策牢牢地挡在了门外,而民营钢铁业也压力重重,建龙将宁波项目拱手让给了宝钢,日照钢铁正在被山东钢铁国有化,钢铁业正在掀起国进民退的大潮。

　　而现行的铁矿石进口双轨制,两种价格的巨大价差,正是国企挤压民企的一个重要砝码,现货比长协便宜之后,这个砝码就归零了,而力拓声称要开卖现货矿之后,不但断了大钢厂倒卖长协矿的财路,而且让大钢厂永远失去了这个砝码。力拓今日在中国市场上的境遇就可想而知了。

　　毫无疑问,在情报门事件上,力拓公司确实扮演了一个极为不光彩的角色,对中国钢铁业中的陈规陋习驾轻就熟,这样的外资企业的到来不但没有提供行业竞争和效率,反而造了跨国垄断资本和国企产业资本的勾结与媾和,最终结果是铁矿石价格非理性上涨,钢材及下游商品价格水涨船高,由中国消费者和劳动力为其埋单。

　　在这个角度上,力拓公司是一个坏公司,但值得我们反思的是为什么西门子、朗讯、IBM等著名跨国公司在中国都难逃商业贿赂门。

　　力拓是一家有着136年历史的跨国公司,业务足迹遍布全球,能够存活这么长时间,不太可能是一家“坏透了”的公司,而国内舆论已经有了对力拓公司妖魔化的趋势,我们在谴责力拓的同时,是否也应该看到是“坏的市场经济”和“坏的跨国公司”之间存在的某种联系。

　　我们认为,解决铁矿石进口混乱局面的根本出路在于:

　　一、彻底取消铁矿石进口许可证制度,把铁矿石还原为一种普通商品,谁都可以直接进口,既是有恶性竞争哄抬价格,也比现在双轨制对价格上涨的刺激要小的多;

　　二、将铁矿石进口权和产业政策脱钩,不能把进口权和扶持谁搞到一起,这样就会又出现两种价格;

　　三、以行业准入标准替代产业政策,办钢厂和开个餐馆没有区别,开餐馆只要卫生等达到要求,不管谁开、开多大,政府现在都不管,我们没有看到餐饮业产能过剩和重复建设,反而看到了欣欣向荣的中国的餐饮业;对于钢铁业也一样,只要环保达标、不偷税漏税等,达到一个门槛就应该放开竞争,政府不要连多大产量、什么品种都事无巨细的管。只有这样中国钢铁业才会在竞争中健康发展,铁矿石乱相才能得到彻底的根治。

 

 

In memory of Becky, June 18, 2009

 

I first met Becky in 1993 when I was in uni. An American m Paul introduced me to Dave who just arrived in Changchun, China and who needed to buy some clothes for the coming winter. We went to an open street market downtown together. Unfortunately we lost each other and we did not have mobile phones!! Giving up hopeless searching, I went back to their flat at late dinner time, starving. Dave was still nowhere to be seen. Becky answered the door and asked if I would like a cup of tea. “Yes, thanks.” I said. At that time in China when somebody you know bumps into your home at meal time, we usually ask the visitor to eat with us. Having served me the first cup, she asked if I would like more tea. “OK, thanks”, I said. But what I really wanted and expected is food! I forgot if I finally got the food, but that’s how we first met – in a hard way. It’s Becky that gave me my first culture shock - at home!

 

To many people, Becky was usually quiet, reserved, not outgoing at all. Sometimes strangers may even feel distant when they first meet Becky. But after becoming friends, she may become very active, revealing her adventurous nature. And sometimes it went crazy.

 

Summer 1995 Dave, Becky and I went to Summer Palace with two other Chinese friends, Scott and Hawk. When boating in the lake, somebody got an idea - Why don’t we jump into the water? Summer Palace used to be Chinese emperors’ retreat place like British Queen’s Winsar Castle and is the most visited tourist site. That day, I strongly believe, Becky became the first, and the last foreigner who had swum in that former Chinese emperor’s lake.

 

From 2000 to 2003, Becky helped proofreading my translation of two pieces of news on China’s coal industry every working day. Sam and Tom told me the other day she even mobilized them to get involved. Her consistent support became a foundation stone of today’s China Coal Monthly, which became a joint venture between our company and our English partner in Petersfield, Hampshire in 2004, and I proudly believe, is the world’s best English newsletter on China’s coal industry. John, the managing editor of our partner in Hampshire called me up Tuesday to pay his respect to Becky. Isn’t it interesting a former English nurse became a Chinese coal specialist?

 

Becky, and Dave, are never loud speakers nor stars but quiet doers. To me, they told the good news more with their hands and feet than mouths, more with their real daily life than fancy strategies and techniques, more with being and doing Christians than talking Christians. They may not have influenced a large number of people and may not boast the quantity of the souls they won, but they do have touched the hearts of a small group, deeply, including me. And the impact will be life long.

 

An interesting phenomenon I found is that while the western countries have kept sending out ms to the less developed world, Christianity has become less and less appreciated at home. It seems that there is a huge need of ms within the western countries themselves. Perhaps one day China should send ms to Europe and North America. Why this happened? How can it be changed? It must be very complicated. But I think Christians and ms like Becky, who have both the vision of great mission and real Christian life stories, are one solution to the problems.

 

As a 17 year long friend of Becky, and her Chinese brother across the oceans, all I want to tell you my friends, both those who have supported them and what they have done and those who may not have understood them and what they have done, is that Becky’s passing is not a waste but a high price she paid for her faith, for what she is convinced to the ultimate truth of life. Here I am to give the testimony, to give my sincere thanks to her and to celebrate her life.

 

Becky, we love you and miss you. And we will move on. After this temperate separate, we will join you in eternity.

 

                                                    

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这些人都是存着信心死的，并没有得着所应许的；却从远处望见，且欢喜迎接，又承认自己在世上是客旅，是寄居的。说这样话的人是表明自己要找一个家乡。他们若想念所离开的家乡，还有可以回去的机会。他们却羡慕一个更美的家乡，就是在天上的。所以神被称为他们神，并不以为耻；因为他已经给他们预备了一座城。

All of these died in faith without having received the promise, but from a distance they saw and greeted them. They confessed that they were strangers and foeigners on the earth, for people who speak in this way make it clear that they are seeking a homeland. If they had been thinking of the land that they had left behind, they would have had opportunity to return. But as it is, they desire a better country, that is, a heavenly one. Therefore God is not ashamed to be called their God; indeed, he has prepared a city for them.